Who Will Win the Rugby League World Cup 2026? Favourites and Predictions

Australia have won 12 of the 16 men’s Rugby League World Cups, so who could possibly stop them on home soil?

The Kangaroos have lost Nathan Cleary to injury, and New Zealand will be without Phoenix Crossland for their pool games. That gives the chasing pack some hope.

Australia are the favourites to win the Rugby League World Cup 2026, but New Zealand, Samoa, England and Tonga all have a real chance of stopping them.

The final is on Sunday 15 November at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane.

Below, you’ll find our ranking of the contenders, the dark horses and the players who could decide the tournament.

We’ll update this page after every round, so check back as the tournament unfolds.

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Who Will Win the Rugby League World Cup 2026? Favourites and Predictions

Quick Answer: Who Will Win the Rugby League World Cup 2026?

Favourites: Australia, the defending champions and hosts
Main challengers: New Zealand, Samoa, England and Tonga
Our prediction: Australia to win, with New Zealand the most likely finalist
Final: Sunday 15 November 2026, Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Last updated: 5 October 2026

Table of Contents

Who Are the Favourites to Win the Rugby League World Cup 2026?

Before the squads were named, tournament previews made Australia the clear favourites, followed by New Zealand, Samoa, England and Tonga. Here is how the five contenders compare.

Team	Why they can win	Biggest question
Australia	12 titles, defending champions and hosts, with a squad full of NRL premiership winners	Nathan Cleary is out and captain Isaah Yeo is playing with a ruptured pectoral
New Zealand	2025 Pacific Championships winners, with James Fisher-Harris and Kalyn Ponga	Phoenix Crossland misses all three pool games
Samoa	Beat England in the 2022 semi-final and reached the final	A tough pool that includes Tonga and PNG
England	Three World Cup finals and a new coach in Brian McDermott	George Williams must prove his fitness, and England have never won it
Tonga	2017 semi-finalists, with Addin Fonua-Blake and Haumole Olakau’atu	A pool that includes England, Lebanon and Samoa

Rugby League World Cup 2026 contenders. This is our opinion, not a guarantee.

Why Australia Are the Team to Beat

Australia have won the trophy 12 times, including the last tournament, when they beat Samoa 30–10 in the final.

This is their first World Cup at home since 2008, and Kevin Walters has named a 23-man squad with six debutants.

Losing Cleary hurts, but Sam Walker, Cameron Munster, Tom Dearden and Mitchell Moses are all in the mix for the halves. See the full list on our Australia Kangaroos squad page.

New Zealand: The Biggest Threat

The Kiwis open the tournament against Australia on 15 October in Sydney, and Group A means only two of the four teams reach the semi-finals.

With captain James Fisher-Harris leading the forwards and Kalyn Ponga now playing for New Zealand, they have the stars to win a big game. They proved it with a record 30–0 win over Australia in the 2023 Pacific Championships final.

Their one big problem is Crossland’s four-match ban. See the New Zealand Kiwis squad and our injury list.

Dark Horses: Samoa, England and Tonga

Samoa were the first Pacific nation to reach a World Cup final, and they’ll fancy their chances again. Follow them on our Samoa squad page.

England have lost three finals to Australia and open against Tonga on 17 October. See the England squad.

Tonga reached the semi-finals in 2017 and have NRL stars in their forward pack. See the Tonga squad.

Can England Win the Rugby League World Cup 2026?

England were ranked third in the world in the International Rugby League rankings at the end of 2025, yet previews rated them only joint-fourth favourites, alongside Tonga.

To reach the semi-finals, they must finish in the top two of the combined table, which means winning at least two of their games against Tonga, France and PNG.

England have reached three finals but never won the trophy, and coach Brian McDermott is waiting on captain George Williams’ fitness. See every player on our England World Cup squad page.

Players Who Could Decide the Rugby League World Cup 2026

Reece Walsh and James Tedesco (Australia): the two fullbacks fighting for the No.1 jersey
Isaah Yeo (Australia): the captain, delaying surgery to lead the side
Kalyn Ponga (New Zealand): a match-winner at fullback
James Fisher-Harris (New Zealand): the captain of a tough forward pack
Addin Fonua-Blake and Haumole Olakau’atu (Tonga): two of the biggest names in the NRL
Victor Radley (England): brings NRL toughness to the pack

How Does a Team Reach the Rugby League World Cup 2026 Final?

Only four teams reach the semi-finals. They are the top two in Group A (Australia, New Zealand, Fiji and the Cook Islands) and the top two in the combined table of Groups B and C.

The semi-finals are on 7 and 8 November, in Newcastle and Sydney. See every date in our Rugby League World Cup 2026 schedule.

Rugby League World Cup Predictions

We think Australia will win, with New Zealand the most likely team to meet them in the final.

For the other two semi-final places, we’d pick two of England, Samoa and Tonga. That’s only our opinion, and injuries can change everything, so we’ll update this after round one.

Every past champion is in our Rugby League World Cup winners list.

Where to Watch and Get Tickets

Every match is free on the Seven Network and 7plus in Australia, on Sky Sport in New Zealand and on Premier Sports in the UK. See our how to watch guide and kick-off times.

Final tickets start from $39 AUD. See our tickets guide, and if you’re flying in, an Australia eSIM from Airalo keeps you connected.

Who Will Win the Rugby League World Cup 2026? FAQ